Persuasion versus Voting Intention in the extraordinary election for governor of Puebla, Mexico in June 2019
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Abstract
This article seeks to analyze the voting intention and persuasion used in the campaigns of an emerging local election based on the death of the elected governor in the 2018 electoral process, the most violent of the last 30 years in Puebla, Mexico, and one of the most controversial in the political history of the State, since the result had to be declared valid through the ruling of the judicial authority. Due to the unexpected death of Martha Erika Alonso, the first woman elected in the State, an extraordinary election in 2019 is called for. In this research a panel study was conducted with 5 focus groups with citizens in full exercise of rights in an age of 18 and up to 65 and over; in equal number of men and women, with a formal schooling ranging from 0 to 20 years, in the most representative electoral districts of the State. The questions that guide this text are: what factors shape electoral preferences in an environment of great uncertainty, and what factors condition the vote in a politically worn-out context? The results indicate a low influence of the media and electoral campaigns on the electorate’s voting intention, since the electoral decision of the citizens interviewed was mostly influenced by the social groups to which they belong and the attitudes and beliefs they held before the electoral process.
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