Projection of the demand of construction materials in Colombia through the analysis of materials flows and systems dynamic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22395/rium.v16n31a4Keywords:
materials flow analysis, systems dynamic, demand of construction materials, projection, cement, concreteAbstract
This article provides an estimation of the future demand of construction materials in Colombia and necessary minerals to produce them by using systems dynamic and analysis of materials flows. Through the analysis of materials flows the amount of minerals required for the production of cement and concrete are determined. Required production of cement and concrete is estimated through a model of systems dynamic, which is adjusted with data from DANE construction census. Results indicate that, disregarding the secondary offer of materials, 176.9 million tons of ground aggregates, river sand, gray cement, dead rock, and cooked ceramic would be required. Manufacture of cement and concrete would require 15.4 million tons of lime, 14.9 million tons of gravel, 14.1 million tons of gypsum, and 13.3, 9.7, and 9.3 million tons of clay, iron minerals, and sand, respectively.Downloads
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References
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[2] DANE, “Construcciónâ€, 2015a. [En lÃnea]. Available: http://goo.gl/Eq9hNG. [Último acceso: 26 Julio 2014].
[3] DANE, “Encuesta Anual Manufactureraâ€, DANE, 2015b. [En lÃnea]. Available: http://goo.gl/w3qi1b. [Último acceso: marzo 2015].
[4] LR, “Auge de los materiales para la construcciónâ€, La República, Bogotá, 2014.
[5] Argos, “Proyectos de expansión de capacidad de cemento en el centro de Colombiaâ€, 18 septiembre 2012. [En lÃnea]. Available: http://goo.gl/UL0vZ3.. [Último acceso: 15 julio 2015].
[6] UPME, “Evaluación de la situación actual y futura del mercado de los materiales de construcción y arcillas en las ciudades de Bogotá, MedellÃn, Bucaramanga, Barranquilla, Santa Marta y eje cafeteroâ€, Bogotá, 2014.
[7] R. Ayres y A. Kneese, “Production, Consumption, and Externalitiesâ€, American Economic Review, vol. 59, n.º 3, pp. 282-96, 1969.
[8] Eurostat, “Economy-wide material flow accounts and derived indicators: A methodological guideâ€, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, 2001.
[9] Eurostat, “Economy-wide material flow accounting: A compilation guideâ€, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2012.
[10] J. Sterman, Business Dynamics. Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world, Massachusetts: Irwin McGraw-Hill, 2000.
[11] P. Brunner y H. Rechberger, Practical Handbook of Material Flow Analysis, Boca Raton, FL: CRC / Lewis, 2004.
[12] OECD, “Measuring material flows and resource productivityâ€, OECD, 2008.
[13] M. C. Vallejo, M. A. Pérez y J. MartÃnez-Alier, “Metabolic profile of the Colombian economy from 1970 to 2007â€, Journal of industrial Ecology, vol. 15, n.º 2, pp. 245-267, 2011.
[14] M. Pidd, Computer Simulation in Management Science, Chichester : John Wiley and Sons, Ltd, 2004.
[15] DANE, “Departamento Administrativo Nacional de EstadÃsticaâ€, 2014. [En lÃnea]. Available: http://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas-por-tema/construccion. [Último acceso: 24 octubre 2014].
[16] CAMACOL, “Construcción en Cifrasâ€, febreo 2015. [En lÃnea]. Available: http://goo.gl/NhJSpE. [Último acceso: abril 4 2015].
[17] SIMCO, “SIMCOâ€, 2014. [En lÃnea]. Available: http://www.simco.gov.co/?TabId=121. [Último acceso: 24 octubre 2014].
[18] EPA, “National Waste Report 2007â€, Environmental Protection AgencY, Wexford, 2007.
[19] WBCSD, “The Cement Sustainability Initiative: Cement Industry Energy and CO2 Performance “Getting the Numbers Rightâ€â€, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Washington, DC, 2009.
[20] EPA, “Study on Increasing the Usage of Recovered Mineral Components in Federally Funded Projects Involving Procurement of Cement or Concreteâ€, Environmental Protection Agency, 2008.
[21] PCA, “America’s Cement Manfacturesâ€, 2014. [En lÃnea]. Available: http://www.cement.org/cement-concrete-basics/how-concrete-is-made. [Último acceso: 24 octubre 2014].
[22] DANE, MetodologÃa EstadÃsticas de Cemento Gris, Bogotá: Imprenta Nacional de Colombia, 2011a.
[23] DANE, “Ficha Metodológica Censo de Edificaciones-CEEDâ€, 2011b. [En lÃnea]. Available: http://goo.gl/xxPIzO.
[24] M. Cárdenas, X. Cadena y J. F. Quintero, “Determinantes de la actividad constructora en Colombiaâ€, Fedesarrollo, Bogotá, 2004.
[25] W. Enders, Applied Econometric Times Series, New York: John Wiley & Sons., 2008.
[26] J. O. Castaño, L. A. Lasso, M. R. RodrÃguez, A. Gómez Cabrera y M. S. Ocampo, “Gestión de residuos de construcción y demolición (RCD) en Bogotá: perspectivas y limitantesâ€, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá, 2013.
[27] M.-S. Low, “Material Flow Analysis of Concrete in the United Statesâ€, MIT, Massachusetts, 2005.
[28] A. Salazar, “Determinación de las propiedades fÃsicas y, estimación del consumo energético en la producción, de acero, concreto, vidrio, ladrillo y otros materiales, entre ellos los alternativos y otros de uso no tradicionalâ€, EcoingenierÃa, Cali, 2013.
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Published
2018-02-26
How to Cite
RÃos Ocampo, J. P., Olaya Morales, Y., & Rivera León, G. J. (2018). Projection of the demand of construction materials in Colombia through the analysis of materials flows and systems dynamic. Revista IngenierÃas Universidad De MedellÃn, 16(31), 75–95. https://doi.org/10.22395/rium.v16n31a4
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